La Liga enters its second round of matches in Spain this weekend, and the big game involves the defending champions. Real Madrid got their title defense off to a solid start last week, and now they’ll have their home opener at the Bernabeu against Valencia.
Valencia
Simone Zaza scored the winner in the 22nd minute of a 1-0 home win over Las Palmas and after an awful stint at West Ham where he was scoreless and played just 11 games, the Italian is showing his worth for Valencia. Zaza scored six goals in 20 games last season for Valencia, including in a 2-1 win over Real Madrid. It was a very good start to the season for Valencia, who finished 12th in La Liga and were quite underwhelming all season. They don’t expect to challenge for the title as that is basically between Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, but Valencia should be a top-half team at the very least. Zaza will be counted on for goals, but they need to be better at the back as Valencia allowed 65 goals in the league last season; only five teams allowed more.
Real Madrid
Real strolled to a 3-0 win at Deportivo La Coruna to open their season as Gareth Bale scored in the 20th minute, then Casemiro just seven minutes later. Toni Kroos put a bow on the game in the 62nd minute, but Madrid lost captain Sergio Ramos to his second yellow card in injury time. He’ll miss this game through suspension and Real are already without Cristiano Ronaldo due to suspension. Real has all the talent in the world, but indiscipline could be a problem this season and manager Zinedine Zidane will have to try and control that. Nacho Fernandez might have to step into the heart of the defense alongside Raphael Varane, but in Casemiro and Kroos, the defense will have a good shield in front of it.
Outlook
Real comes into this match as a huge -700 favorite over Valencia, who is at +1400 and a draw is at +700. Real has won five and drawn five of their last 12 meetings with Valencia, who split last season’s games with Real and each team won at home. Valencia hasn’t won at the Bernabeu since 2008, a span of 11 games, but they’ve gotten four draws there, so they’re not scared to go on the road against Real, who could have a big problem defensively and Zaza might be able to take advantage of the absence of Ramos. But first, Valencia has to try and get a foothold in the middle of the field and that will be very difficult with Kroos, Casemiro, Isco and Luka Modric. Carlos Soler, Daniel Parejo and Alvaro Medran all started in midfield for Valencia against Las Palmas and they were fine, but Real poses a much larger threat to them. Valencia might decide, as many teams will against Real, to sit back and try to hit on the counter.
La Liga Betting Pick: Madrid
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