Atletico Madrid has reached two Champions League finals in the last four years and went to the semifinals last year, but they’re in danger of missing out on the knockout stage in this season. Atletico is third in Group C, three points behind Roma as they host FK Qarabag, who are in last place, but they’re only a point behind Atletico.
What To Know About FK Qarabag
Qarabag, who hail from Azerbaijan, held Atletico to a 0-0 draw at home in the last Champions League matchday, and they’re a very tough team at home. They played Roma hard in a 2-1 loss, and even though they lost Dino Ndlovu to a red card in the 75th minute (which means they won’t have him for the next game), they still took a point away and not only that, they didn’t back down from the Spanish team. Qarabag had 46% of the possession and seven shots on goal, although only one hit the target. The loss of Ndlovu is tough because he has scored four goals in the Champions League to fire Qarabag through the qualification rounds, and he has seven goals in all competitions this season. That puts more pressure on Mahir Madatov, who has six goals. Qarabag will play Sebail in the Azerbaijan Premier League on Friday heading into this game.
What To Know About Atletico Madrid
Atletico was absolutely awful in the last Champions League game against Qarabag, even on the road. The formation was changed to push Antoine Griezmann out wide, which was baffling to say the least, and he didn’t look good. There was no creativity to unlock a Qarabag team that played well, but for a team of Atletico’s talent, this should have been no problem. There was no urgency and there are a lot of problems in the Atletico dressing room right now, and they look to be mental. Atletico visits Elche in the first leg of the Spanish Cup, and then they host Villarreal in Champions League action, so they have a couple games to get their act together and their heads on straight before this Champions League match.
Outlook
Atletico are favored by -900 at home against Qarabag, who are listed at +2200 and a draw comes in at +700. That was their first meeting and Qarabag definitely gave a good account of themselves, but things could change when they head on the road. Qarabag has gone out on the road once in this Champions League group stage so far, and they were handed a 6-0 thrashing at Chelsea. Atletico probably won’t score six goals, but they should be able to win this game easy enough. If they can’t, the alarm bells are going to sound and Atletico also needs some help on the other end as Chelsea visits Roma in the other Group C match. If Roma loses, Atletico still has a very good chance at going through to the next stage, but first they have to take care of business at home against Qarabag.
Champions League Betting Pick: Atletico Madrid
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